CB BureauThe
Uttarakhand floods are just a warning bell for what might unfold in the years to
come. The changing patterns of the Indian monsoon have become a cause of worry for scientists
across the globe.
A report
from the scientists at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says that
computer simulations with a comprehensive set of 20 state-of-the-art climate
models now consistently show that Indian monsoon’s daily variability will only
increase in future.
Scientists claim that 4 per cent
to 12 per cent variability change of daily monsoon rainfall in India is to be
expected with at least one degree Celsius of warming. They also warn that if
greenhouse gases continue to be emitted unabated, there is a chance of 13 per
cent to 50 per cent change in variability.
According to the analysis, even if
the global warming is limited to the internationally acknowledged
threshold of two degrees Celsius, the risk of additional day-to-day variability
between 8 per cent and 24 per cent will remain.
In India, where 80 per cent of annual rainfall occurs during
the monsoon season – June through September, the factors that will perturb
rainfall regularity include the higher holding capacity of moisture of the
warmer air as well as complex phenomena like cooling in the higher atmosphere
which changes current pressure and thereby rainfall patterns.
Extreme
rainfall bears the risk of flooding, crop failure, loss of life and livelihood, and
is followed by disease epidemic. On the other hand is the drought and that too
bears the same risks.